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Exam 5: Measuring Market Opportunities: Forecasting and Market Knowledge

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Question 21

Multiple Choice

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Which of the following statements about competitive intelligence systems is incorrect?

A) It is a systematic and ethical approach for gathering and analysing information about competitors' activities and related business trends.
B) It is based on the idea that more than 80 per cent of all information is public knowledge.
C) It uses online databases,government documents,etc.as its source of information.
D) It allows the effective capture of customer intelligence from salespeople and account transfers.

E) B) and C)
F) A) and D)

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Question 22

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Which of the following observations is not applicable to the analogy approach of forecasting sales?

A) It allows for comparison of similar available historical data for any particular product.
B) It uses a behavioural approach to estimate future sales patterns and likely customers.
C) It is an approach often used to forecast the sales or market potential for a new product.
D) It allows managers to look at the sales history of earlier introductions to forecast the sales for the new product.

E) B) and D)
F) A) and D)

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Question 23

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Every marketer,not just retailers,needs information about 'what's hot and what's not'.Fortunately,accounting systems can generally collect such data.

Write a short note on the common sources of error in forecasting.

Chain ration calculations and indices are both examples of:

There are two important keys to improving the credibility and accuracy of forecasts of sales and market potential.The first is to make explicit the assumptions on which the forecast is based.The second key to effective forecasting is to use multiple methods.With the second key when forecasts obtained by different methods converge near a common figure, greater confidence can be placed in that figure

For which category of new products is the observational method of preparing an evidence-based forecast not possible?

Without valid market intelligence or market knowledge to gather meaningful data that is relevant,reliable,valid and timely,market forecasting is just based on guess work.

Competitive intelligence is hard to come by because most of it is not available publicly and can only be obtained through the commissioning of specialised market research agencies.

As with all forecasting methods,statistical methods have important limitations.Most important of these is that statistical methods generally assume that the future will look very much like the past.This is an example of a limitation of qualitative forecasting.

In Australia,the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC)determines the ethical guidelines and legal obligations for market research agencies.

The theory that seeks to explain the adoption process of an innovative product or service over time among a group of potential buyers is known as the diffusion of innovations theory which consists of five stages: innovators,early adopters,early majority,late majority and laggards.